Effect of Azithromycin on Failure Proportion of Severe Periodontitis Non-surgical Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-11-02, after 2021-11-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 41.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: failurepatientchroniccardiacinfections
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theeffect ofthe effectperiodontalexamination -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 35 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 114 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 41.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 30 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 69531 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 9903 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azithromycin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Effect of Azithromycin in the Treatment of Chronic Periodontitis NCT01921738 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Shaping the Indications for Periodontal Adjunctive Antibiotics in Dental Practice NCT06131021 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Herbal Dentifrice in Treatment of Chronic Periodontitis NCT06043687 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Local Doxycycline in Smokers With Chronic Periodontitis NCT02726646 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Investigate Oral Bacteria in Adult Population NCT00762177 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.