Use of a GLP-1R Agonist to Treat Opioid Use Disorder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (69 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 44.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantstagecoronaryfailureheart
  Phrases that lowered it: diabetestypeagonistpressureblood
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 202 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 41137 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lorcaserin in Combination With XR-Naltrexone for Relapse Prevention in Opioid Use Disorder NCT03169816 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Impact of Lofexidine on Stress, Craving and Opioid Use NCT03718065 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Daily Liraglutide for Nicotine Dependence NCT03712098 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Reversal of Opioid-induced Respiratory Depression With Opioid Antagonists NCT05338632 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
• Does Treatment With GLP-1 Reduce Alcohol Intake in Patients With Alcohol Dependence? NCT03232112 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.