Gemcitabine and Cisplatin With or Without CPI-613 as First Line Therapy for Patients With Advanced Unresectable Biliary Tract Cancer (BilT-04)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapypatients mustcancerpriorradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: hepaticliverlungcomparewill receive
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9903 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 79384 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 127 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Copanlisib (BAY 80-6946) in Combination With Gemcitabine and Cisplatin in Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma NCT02631590 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Comparing NUC-1031 Plus Cisplatin to Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin in Patients With Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04163900 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I/II Open-Label Dose-Escalation Clinical Trial of CPI-613 in Combination With Gemcitabine in Cancer Patients NCT00907166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Gemcitabine/Cisplatin or Ipilimumab for Patients With Advanced Unresectable Biliary Tract Cancer NCT03101566 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• First Line Gemcitabine, Cisplatin and MEK162 in Advanced Biliary Tract Carcinoma NCT01828034 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.