Study to Demonstrate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Intravenous Secukinumab up to 52 Weeks in Subjects With Active Psoriatic Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 32.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1287 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectskgscreeningrandomizationplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: psoriasismoderatepatientsantipsa
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy at 24 Weeks and Long Term Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy up to 2 Years of Secukinumab (AIN457) in Patients With Active Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA) NCT01392326 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Study to Demonstrate the Efficacy (Including Inhibition of Structural Damage), Safety and Tolerability up to 2 Years of Secukinumab in Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02404350 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Secukinumab Compared to Ustekinumab in Adults With Active Psoriatic Arthritis and Failure of TNFα-Inhibitor Treatment NCT04632927 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• 24 Week Efficacy and 3-year Safety and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT01989468 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• 16-week Efficacy and 2-year Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Participants With Active Psoriatic Arthritis NCT02294227 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.