Study of Efficacy and Safety of Ligelizumab in Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria Patients Who Completed a Previous Study With Ligelizumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicprecedingsubjectsonsetcompleted
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoand safetyefficacy andevaluate theto evaluate
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1302 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of QGE031 in Adolescent Patients With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) NCT03437278 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Safety Extension Study to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of QGE031 in Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) Patients NCT02649218 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of Safety and Efficacy of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Adolescents and Adults Inadequately Controlled With H1-antihistamines NCT03580369 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Japanese Patients Inadequately Controlled With H1- Antihistamines NCT03907878 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of and Efficacy of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Adolescents and Adults Inadequately Controlled With H1-antihistamines. NCT03580356 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.