Desidustat in the Treatment of Anemia in CKD on Dialysis Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-02, after 2020-01-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: definedpatientheartrandomizationventricular
Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacy -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 24561 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1622 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- desidustat, epoetin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Desidustat in the Treatment of Anemia in CKD NCT04012957 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Anemia Studies in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD): Erythropoiesis Via a Novel Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor (PHI) Daprodustat-in Incident Dialysis (ASCEND-ID) NCT03029208 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- 4 Week Correction Study in Subjects With Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease Who Are Not Undergoing Dialysis NCT01587898 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Roxadustat (FG-4592) for the Treatment of Anemia in End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Newly Initiated Dialysis Participants NCT02052310 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- 4 Week Switch Study in Hemodialysis-dependent Subjects With Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01587924 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.