Reduce Incidence of Pre-Dialysis Hyperkalaemia With Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate in Chinese Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectsrandomizationatrialscreening
  Phrases that lowered it: mgand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1634 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test Whether ZS (Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate) Can Reduce the Incidence of Increased Blood Potassium Levels Among Dialized Patients. NCT03303521 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Effect of Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate on Arrythmia-related Cardiovascular Outcomes in Participants on Chronic Hemodialysis With Recurrent Hyperkalemia (DIALIZE-Outcomes) NCT04847232 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• ZS Ph2/3 Dose-response Study in Japan NCT03127644 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Open-label Safety of Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate for up to 12 Months in Japanese Subjects With Hyperkalemia NCT03172702 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• PA21 Safety and Efficacy in Adult Chinese Subjects NCT03644264 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.