Switch to Doravirine/Islatravir (DOR/ISL) in Human Immunodeficiency Virus 1 (HIV-1) Participants Treated With Bictegravir/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Alafenamide (BIC/FTC/TAF) (MK-8591A-018)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-02-27, after 2020-02-18 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercelltherapyprioractive
Phrases that lowered it: copies mlevaluateparticipantstenofovirhiv rna -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1271 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1271 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 123 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, immunology, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Doravirine/Islatravir (DOR/ISL 100 mg/0.75 mg) to Evaluate the Antiretroviral Activity, Safety, and Tolerability in Treatment-Naïve Participants With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Infection (MK-8591A-020) NCT04233879 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Dose Ranging, Switch Study of Islatravir (MK-8591) and Ulonivirine (MK-8507) Once-Weekly in Virologically-Suppressed Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) [MK-8591-013] NCT04564547 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Doravirine/Islatravir (DOR/ISL) in Heavily Treatment-Experienced (HTE) Participants for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Infection (MK-8591A-019) NCT04233216 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of a Switch to Doravirine/Islatravir in Participants With HIV-1 (MK-8591A-017) NCT04223778 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Switching From Regimens Consisting of a Ritonavir-boosted Protease Inhibitor Plus Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Fixed-Dose Combination to the Elvitegravir/Cobicistat/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir DF Single-Tablet Regimen in Virologically Suppressed, HIV-1 Infected Patients NCT01475838 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.