Effects of Intravenous GC4419 on the Incidence and Severity of Esophagitis Due to Chemoradiotherapy for Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagelung cancerradiationchemotherapycell lung
  Phrases that lowered it: labelevaluateopenstudy tomulti center
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19789 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ph 2 Open Label Study of GC4419 to Reduce SOM Associated With Chemoradiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer NCT04529850 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Effects of GC4419 on Radiation Induced Oral Mucositis in Patients With Head/Neck Cancer NCT02508389 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Study of SBRT and GC4711 for Centrally Located or Large NSCLC NCT04476797 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Paclitaxel, Cisplatin, and Radiation Therapy With or Without Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT00655876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of OncoGel™ Added to Chemotherapy and Radiation Before Surgery in Subjects With Esophageal Cancer NCT00573131 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.