A Study to Assess the Effect AZD4831 in Japanese and Chinese Healthy Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectventricularmultiplemsascending
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyjapanesevolunteersalcoholallergy
• Sponsor's past trials: 1585 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of AZD5718 After Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Administration to Healthy Japanese Men NCT03400488 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of AZD8233 in Healthy Male Subjects With Increased Elevated LDL-C Levels. NCT03593785 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Single and Multiple Doses of AZD4831 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT02712372 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Understand the Safety, Tolerability, and Activity of Drug in Body Over a Period of Time of AZD2693, in Subjects of Non-Childbearing Potential in Overweight But Otherwise Healthy Subjects, and Healthy Chinese and Japanese Subjects NCT04142424 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Multiple-ascending Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD9977 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT03435276 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.