Evaluation of the Acceptability and Efficacy of 10 Micrograms of Estradiol Vaginal Tablets vs Promestriene Vaginal Cream

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 45.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Bioequivalence of Estradiol Vaginal Inserts, 10 mcg and Vagifem® 10 mcg and Compare to Placebo NCT01779947 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Equivalence of Estradiol Vaginal Cream to Reference Standard in the Treatment of Vaginal Atrophy NCT03332303 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Equivalence of Estradiol Vaginal Cream 0.01% to Estrace® Cream 0.01% in Atrophic Vaginitis NCT03294538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Three Formulations of Ultra-low Dose Estriol Vaginal Gel (0.005%, 0.002%, 0.0008% Estriol Vaginal Gel) for the Treatment of Vaginal Dryness in Postmenopausal Women With Vulvovaginal Atrophy NCT02967510 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Estradiol Vaginal Inserts 4mcg To IMVEXXY ® (Estradiol Vaginal Inerts 4 mcg) In The Treatment Of Dyspareunia in Women With Vulvur and Vaginal Atrophy NCT05617820 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.