Study of Osimertinib in Patients with a Lung Cancer with Brain or Leptomeningeal Metastases with EGFR Mutation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-12-27, after 2020-07-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-12-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lungnsclcchemotherapycancersmall cell
Phrases that lowered it: participantsbowelscreeningpresencepatient -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 7159 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 20 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7159 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2978 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 40.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- osimertinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Randomised Phase II Trial of Osimertinib With or Without SRS for EGFR Mutated NSCLC With Brain Metastases NCT03497767 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of 80mg Osimertinib in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer(NSCLC) NCT04563871 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Local Ablative Therapy for Treatment of Oligoprogressive, EGFR-Mutated, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer After Treatment With Osimertinib NCT02759835 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Exploring the Theragnostic Value of Osimertinib in EGFR-mutated Lung Cancer (THEROS) NCT03810066 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Osimertinib in First and Second Line Treatment of NSCLC Harboring EGFR Mutations From Circulating Tumor DNA NCT02769286 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.