A Study Comparing ARB With Radium-223 vs ARB Therapy With Placebo and the Effect Upon Survival for mCRPC Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-03-07, after 2020-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancermg dlpriorsubject
Phrases that lowered it: prostatepsara28at screening -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45993 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 45993 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3547 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- darolutamide, enzalutamide, lead, radium
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Radium-223 in Combination With Enzalutamide NCT02225704 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Radium-223 and Radiotherapy in Hormone-Naïve Men With Oligometastatic Prostate Cancer to Bone NCT03304418 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Biomarker Analysis of Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer Undergoing Bipolar Androgen Therapy NCT04424654 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Androgen Deprivation Therapy +/- Radium-223 Dichloride in Metastatic Prostate Cancer With Bone Metastases NCT02582749 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Denosumab in Combination With Enzalutamide in Progressive Metastatic Castrate-resistant Prostate Cancer and Bone Metastases. NCT03869762 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.