Brexpiprazole in Treatment of Children and Adolescents With Irritability Associated With Autism Spectrum Disorder for Subjects That Have Completed Participation in 331-201-00148

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 24.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: term safetythe longlong termassociatedpurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatethe trialagedperiod
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 181 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Brexpiprazole in Treatment of Children and Adolescents With Irritability Associated With Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT04174365 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study of the Safety and Tolerability of STX209 in Subjects With Autism Spectrum Disorders NCT00846547 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• AB-2004 in Treatment of Irritability Associated With Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) NCT04895215 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Long-term, Extended Treatment Study of Aripiprazole in Pediatric Patients With Autistic Disorder NCT01617460 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Risperidone (R064766) in Children and Adolescents With Irritability Associated With Autistic Disorder NCT01624675 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.