Topical Hyaluronic Acid and Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-01-20, after 2019-11-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: topicalsystemictreatment ofthe treatmentkidney disease
Phrases that lowered it: ulcerhyaluronic acidactivepainanti inflammatory -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 610 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 349 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 40777 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 30 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 349 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 610 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 40777 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6142 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 56.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hyaluronic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Therapeutic Effects of Ibuprofen, Diphenhydramine and Aluminium MgS on Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis NCT01293968 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Systemic Zinc Sulphate in Treatment of Recurrent Aphthous Ulcerations:A Doubleblind, Placebo Controled Study NCT01210014 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness and Safety of Lactobacillus Rhamnosus Lcr35® in the Treatment of Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis NCT02789605 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of 5% Chitosan Nanoparticle Paste in the Treatment of Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis NCT07702474 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Yunnan Baiyao on Minor Recurrent Aphthous Stomatitis NCT01652625 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.