Study of Efficacy and Safety of MBG453 in Combination With Azacitidine in Subjects With Intermediate, High or Very High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) as Per IPSS-R, or Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia-2 (CMML-2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiachemotherapyrandomizationhighcell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsinvestigatoraccordingclinicaladult
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 43.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1315 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of MBG453 in Combination With Hypomethylating Agents in Subjects With IPSS-R Intermediate, High or Very High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS). NCT03946670 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• STIMULUS MDS-US : Sabatolimab Added to HMA in Higher Risk MDS NCT04878432 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Sabatolimab in Combination With Azacitidine and Venetoclax in High or Very High Risk MDS Participants NCT04812548 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Phase Ib Study of Select Drug Combinations in Patients With Lower Risk MDS NCT04810611 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Magrolimab + Azacitidine Versus Azacitidine + Placebo in Untreated Participants With Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT04313881 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.