Clinical Study to Assess the Mode of Action of QBW251 in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-09-20, after 2020-09-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1336 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicsubjectspulmonarymsto screening
Phrases that lowered it: patientsfev1asthmaeffectthe trial -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1336 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 151 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Losmapimod (GW856553) in Frequently Exacerbating Participants With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02299375 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- BI 113608 Administered as Tablets Twice Daily Over 4 Weeks in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Associated With Chronic Bronchitis NCT01958008 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Comparative Study of Fluticasone Furoate(FF)/Umeclidinium Bromide (UMEC)/ Vilanterol (VI) Closed Therapy Versus FF/VI Plus UMEC Open Therapy in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02729051 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Long-term Efficacy and Safety of Aclidinium Bromide/Formoterol Fumarate Fixed-Dose Combination NCT01462942 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (FF/VI) Compared With Vilanterol Inhalation Powder (VI) in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT02105974 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.