Anlotinib Plus Sintilimab as First-line Treatment for Patients With Advanced Colorectal Cancer (APICAL-CRC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellmetastasescancerkidneypatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thesinglesubject isto evaluatefemale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of A140 and Erbitux Combined With mfolfox6 to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of First-line Treatment for Ras Wild-type mCRC NCT04835142 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• SI-B001 as a Single Agent or in Combination With Chemotherapy in the Treatment of Digestive System Malignancies NCT05039944 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Stivant (AryoGen Bevacizumab) Versus Avastin in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03288987 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effects of Sorafenib if Combined With Chemotherapy (FOLFOX6 or FOLFIRI) in the Second-Line Treatment of Colorectal Cancer NCT00889343 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Irinotecan Hydrochloride, Fluorouracil, and Leucovorin Calcium With or Without Zibotentan in Treating Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01205711 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.