Efficacy and Safety APT-1011 in Adult Subjects With Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) (FLUTE-2)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: 30 dayswithin 30hormonereceptordisease
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeldiseasesand safetyevaluateperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 51.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 21 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 148168 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 24-Week Induction Study of APT-1011 in Adult Subjects With Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) (FLUTE 3) NCT05634746 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety APT-1011 in Adolescent Subjects With Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) - A Sub-Study of the FLUTE-2 Trial NCT05083312 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study in Adolescents and Adults With Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) Measuring Histologic Response and Determine if Reduction in Dysphagia is Achieved NCT02605837 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of IRL201104 in Adults With Active Eosinophilic Esophagitis NCT05084963 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lirentelimab (AK002) in Patients With Active Eosinophilic Esophagitis NCT04322708 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.