A Study of Standard Drugs for Mycobacterium Avium Complex

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to assesssubjectassess theearlypregnancy
  Phrases that lowered it: dailyrespiratorylung diseasepulmonary14 days
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 662 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 137 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 50357 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9635 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of Two- Versus Three-antibiotic Therapy for Pulmonary Mycobacterium Avium Complex Disease NCT03672630 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A Study of Bedaquiline Administered as Part of a Treatment Regimen With Clarithromycin and Ethambutol in Adult Patients With Treatment-refractory Mycobacterium Avium Complex-lung Disease (MAC-LD) NCT04630145 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• RHB-204 for the Treatment of Pulmonary Mycobacterium Avium Complex Disease NCT04616924 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Liposomal Amikacin for Inhalation (LAI) in the Treatment of Mycobacterium Abscessus Lung Disease NCT03038178 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Azithromycin as Host-directed Therapy for Pulmonary Tuberculosis NCT03160638 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.