PK and Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of DST-2970
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-01-27, after 2020-01-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientto determinefailureheartescalation
Phrases that lowered it: patients whoevaluatepatients withopen labelefficacy -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 274755 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 48272 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 274755 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 48272 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abiraterone, prednisone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- BI836845 Plus Enzalutamide in Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) NCT02204072 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Exicorilant (CORT125281) in Combination With Enzalutamide in Patients With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03437941 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- Abiraterone Post Ketoconazole for Prostate Cancer NCT01199146 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
- Study of Abiraterone Acetate and Prednisone in Combination With Cabazitaxel in Patients With Prostate Cancer NCT01845792 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
- Apalutamide and Abiraterone Acetate in African American and Caucasian Men With Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03098836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.