A Study to Assess ASP0598 Otic Solution Following Topical Application in the Ear in Subjects With Chronic Tympanic Membrane Perforation (CTMP)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-01-24, after 2020-09-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectand neckhead andsubjects within subjects
Phrases that lowered it: application28topicaldaypharmacokinetics -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 8 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 90 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 28 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Proof-of-Concept Study of a Single Application of an Investigational Otic Suspension in Treatment of Acute Otitis Media With Tympanostomy Tubes NCT01908803 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- Study to Compare Efficacy and Safety of AR01 to a Placebo Solution for Relief of Pain in Acute Otitis Media (AR01007) NCT02074007 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- Bioequivalence of Two Ciprofloxacin 0.3%/Dexamethasone 0.1% Sterile Otic Suspensions in Otitis Media in Children With Tympanostomy Tubes NCT01994642 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Phase 3 Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of AR01 to a Placebo Solution for Relief of Pain in Acute Otitis Media NCT02044341 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Bioequivalence Study of Two Ciprofloxacin/Dexamethasone Formulations in Patients With Otitis Externa NCT01910155 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.