Hydroxychloroquine Treatment for Severe COVID-19 Pulmonary Infection (HYDRA Trial)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (59 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-08-15, after 2020-04-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: shockoxygenacutechronicventilation
Phrases that lowered it: 19clinicalefficacytrialpatients with -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 75258 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14758 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydroxychloroquine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial: Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients NCT04345692 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
- Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 NCT04342221 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Hydroxychloroquine Monotherapy and in Combination With Azithromycin in Patients With Moderate and Severe COVID-19 Disease NCT04358081 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Hydroxychloroquine Plus Azithromycin Versus Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 Pneumonia (COVIDOC Trial) NCT04345861 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
- Outcomes Related to COVID-19 Treated With Hydroxychloroquine Among In-patients With Symptomatic Disease NCT04332991 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.