Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis With Hydroxychloroquine for High-Risk Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-31, after 2020-04-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: treatmentnegativeage 1818 yearspregnancy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluateuppermedical historyblood -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 5 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 75258 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14758 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydroxychloroquine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Hydroxychloroquine to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection/COVID-19 NCT04414241 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Pre-exposure Prophylaxis for SARS-Coronavirus-2 NCT04328467 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 Post-exposure Prophylaxis (PEP) NCT04328961 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Hydroxychloroquine as Chemoprevention for COVID-19 for High Risk Healthcare Workers NCT04345653 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Hydroxychloroquine in the Prevention of COVID-19 Infection in Healthcare Workers NCT04333225 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.