Randomized, Controlled Study of IFX-1 in Patients With Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (75 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartphase iifailurecongestivepatient
  Phrases that lowered it: 19administrationinvestigatorrandomizeddaily
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ACTIV-3b: Therapeutics for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 NCT04843761 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• COVID-19 Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of REGN14256+Imdevimab for the Treatment of COVID-19 Adult and Adolescent Patients Without Risk Factors for Progression to Severe Disease NCT05081388 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of XAV-19 in Patients With COVID-19 Induced Moderate Pneumonia NCT04453384 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Multi-site Adaptive Trials for COVID-19 NCT04370262 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Investigating Otilimab in Patients With Severe Pulmonary COVID-19 Related Disease NCT04376684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.