Ruxolitinib in Covid-19 Patients With Defined Hyperinflammation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-15, after 2020-04-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stageiipatientsstatuspatient
Phrases that lowered it: malesingleaccording19reference -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 47 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 33684 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7299 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ruxolitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Interferon Lambda for Immediate Antiviral Therapy at Diagnosis in COVID-19 NCT04354259 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Proxalutamide (GT0918) in Hospitalized COVID-19 Subjects NCT05009732 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
- The South Proxa-Rescue AndroCoV Trial Against COVID-19 NCT05126628 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Proxalutamide Treatment for Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients NCT04728802 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Mavrilimumab to Reduce Progression of Acute Respiratory Failure in COVID-19 Pneumonia and Systemic Hyper-inflammation NCT04399980 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.