Efficacy of Early Administration of Tocilizumab in COVID-19 Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-06-06, after 2020-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientspatientor equaloxygenequal to
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateclinicaladministrationtocilizumab -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 19 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 45470 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11230 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Investigate Intravenous Tocilizumab in Participants With Moderate to Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04363736 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Tocilizumab in Patients With Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04320615 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Trial of Tocilizumab for Treatment of Severe COVID-19: ARCHITECTS NCT04412772 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- Tocilizumab in the Treatment of Coronavirus Induced Disease (COVID-19) NCT04335071 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Tocilizumab for Prevention of Respiratory Failure in Patients With Severe COVID-19 Infection NCT04377659 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.