PVP-I Nasal Sprays and SARS-CoV-2 Nasopharyngeal Titers (for COVID-19)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-13, after 2020-08-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 717 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to determinesubjectstime ofthe timesurgery
Phrases that lowered it: nasalefficacy19normalsafety -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3523 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 717 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 148 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3523 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 360 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- isotonic, povidone iodine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Virucidal Effect of PVP-I on COVID-19 and as Well as Safety of Its Application on Nasopharynx & Oropharynx NCT04872686 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Virucidal Effect of Povidone Iodine on COVID-19 In-Vivo NCT04549376 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- COVID-19: Povidone-Iodine Intranasal Prophylaxis in Front-line Healthcare Personnel and Inpatients NCT04364802 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Povidone Iodine Mouthwash, Gargle, and Nasal Spray to Reduce Naso- Pharyngeal Viral Load in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04371965 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- A Study To Assess The Efficacy and Safety of HH-120 Nasal Spray for the Treatment of Mild COVID-19 NCT05713318 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.