Thoracic Radiotherapy Plus Durvalumab in Elderly and/or Frail NSCLC Stage III Patients Unfit for Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerhormonestagepriornsclc
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsas determineddetermined byfev1efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4159 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety & Efficacy of Consolidative Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy for Boosting Residual Lung Cancer With Durvalumab NCT04748419 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Combination With SBRT in Patients With Metastatic Cancer NCT03212469 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Chemoradiation Followed by Durvalumab in Poor Risk and/or Elderly Patients With Stage III NSCLC NCT04441138 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Assess the Safety of Immunotherapy Induction With Tremelimumab and Durvalumab Prior to Chemoradiotherapy and/or Resection in the Treatment NCT04287894 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Thoracic RadiothErapy With Atezolizumab in Small Cell lUng canceR Extensive Disease NCT04462276 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.