Efficacy of Tocilizumab on Patients With COVID-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 24% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-08-27, after 2020-04-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-08-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: smallpatientnonriskpatients
Phrases that lowered it: 19the studyparticipantsmaleclinical trial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 950 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11265 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 46373 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 950 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 177 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 46373 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11265 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Investigating Otilimab in Patients With Severe Pulmonary COVID-19 Related Disease NCT04376684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Trial of Tocilizumab for Treatment of Severe COVID-19: ARCHITECTS NCT04412772 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- Tocilizumab for Patients With Cancer and COVID-19 Disease NCT04370834 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- A Trial of Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (ATI)-450 in Patients With Moderate-severe Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) NCT04481685 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Anti-Interleukin-8 (Anti-IL-8) for Patients With COVID-19 NCT04347226 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.