Coagulopathy of COVID-19: A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial of Therapeutic Anticoagulation Versus Standard Care
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-14, after 2020-05-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: treatingcarehourspatientto determine
Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect of19screeningopen label -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 24 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 24 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 129 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 37 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, infectious disease, respiratory, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial of Therapeutic Anticoagulation Versus Standard Care as a Rapid Response to (SARS-CoV-2) COVID-19 Pandemic NCT04444700 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- Preventing COVID-19 Complications With Low- and High-dose Anticoagulation NCT04345848 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
- Antithrombotic Therapy to Ameliorate Complications of COVID-19 (ATTACC) NCT04372589 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- ANTIcoagulation in Severe COVID-19 Patients NCT04808882 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Full Dose Heparin Vs. Prophylactic Or Intermediate Dose Heparin in High Risk COVID-19 Patients NCT04401293 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.