Efficacy of Dupilumab for Patients With Chronic Rhinosinusitis Without Nasal Polyps (CRSsNP)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-09-30, after 2020-10-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsbiologicpriorprimarygreater than
Phrases that lowered it: asthmanasalvisitpatientsblood -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 709 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 38532 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19519 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 709 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 123 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 38532 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19519 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 12.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dupilumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Controlled Clinical Study of Dupilumab in Patients With Bilateral Nasal Polyps NCT02912468 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Controlled Clinical Study of Dupilumab in Patients With Nasal Polyps NCT02898454 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Dupilumab in CRSsNP NCT04678856 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- An Evaluation of Dupilumab in Patients With Nasal Polyposis And Chronic Symptoms Of Sinusitis NCT01920893 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Add-on Dupilumab for AFRS as Postoperative Therapy (ADAPT) NCT05545072 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.