Treating COVID-19 With Hydroxychloroquine (TEACH)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-04-01, after 2020-04-15 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ventilationplaceboadmissionicumechanical
Phrases that lowered it: investigateeffecttrialtreatmentthe study -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 407 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 75258 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 407 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 125 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 75258 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14758 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hydroxychloroquine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Hydroxychloroquine Monotherapy and in Combination With Azithromycin in Patients With Moderate and Severe COVID-19 Disease NCT04358081 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 NCT04342221 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- University of Utah COVID-19 Hydrochloroquine Trial NCT04342169 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Evaluating the Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin to Prevent Hospitalization or Death in Persons With COVID-19 NCT04358068 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
- Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Mild COVID-19 Disease NCT04340544 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.