ADMIRAL Trial: Adaptive Mediastinal Radiation With Chemo-Immunotherapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-04-23, after 2021-12-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationlung cancernsclccell lungsmall cell
Phrases that lowered it: hcvupperhepatitis virusfemalemm -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 133101 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15835 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 614 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 113 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 133101 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 15835 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, durvalumab, etoposide, pemetrexed, platinum
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Durvalumab (MEDI4736) With or Without SBRT in Clinical Stage I, II and IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02904954 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Radiotherapy With Durvalumab Prior to Surgical Resection for HPV Negative Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03635164 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Ascorbate With Durvalumab in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT06083454 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- Durvalumab and Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Advanced NSCLC NCT04786093 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Imaging Tumor-infiltrating T-cells in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03853187 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.