Effect of AD128 to Treat Obstructive Sleep Apnea
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-19, after 2020-10-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: sclerosisplacebofailureparticipantscerebral
Phrases that lowered it: effectcrossovertrialdrugsparticipant -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3734 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 339 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mannitol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of AD128 Versus Placebo in Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT04449133 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Crossover Trial of AD109 in Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT04580394 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Crossover Trial of AD036 in Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT04445688 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Learn More About How Well BAY2586116 Works and How Safe it is in Participants With Moderate to Severe Obstructive Sleep Apnea NCT04713826 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- AD109 Dose Finding in Mild to Moderate OSA NCT04631107 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.