Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Dupilumab in Pediatric Patients With Active Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboto assesskeysafety tolerabilitypatient
  Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyevaluatepatients whoefficacy andand safety
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 18900 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 11 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36605 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Dupilumab in Adult and Adolescent Patients With Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) NCT03633617 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Study of Dupilumab in Adult Participants With Active Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) NCT02379052 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Dupilumab in Eosinophilic Gastritis NCT03678545 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Mepo for Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE) Study NCT03656380 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Dupilumab Monotherapy in Pediatric Patients With Peanut Allergy NCT03793608 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.