Dexamethasone for COVID-19 Related ARDS: a Multicenter, Randomized Clinical Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-05-21, after 2020-05-21 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsfailurebreastsolidventilation
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andtrial19clinical -
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 177471 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 28951 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- COVID-19-associated ARDS Treated With Dexamethasone: Alliance Covid-19 Brasil III NCT04327401 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Glucocorticoids in COVID-19 (CORTIVID) NCT04438980 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Randomized Clinical Trial of Intranasal Dexamethasone as an Adjuvant in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04513184 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Methylprednisolone vs. Dexamethasone in COVID-19 Pneumonia (MEDEAS RCT) NCT04636671 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Randomized Open Investigation Determining Steroid Dose NCT04834375 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.