Assessment of the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Patients With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typeparticipantspaindementiaalzheimer
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateclinicallythe investigatorscreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 188 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 90 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Patients With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT04464564 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated
• Assessment of the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of AVP-786 (Deudextromethorphan Hydrobromide [d6-DM]/Quinidine Sulfate [Q]) for the Treatment of Agitation in Patients With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT03393520 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Patients With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT02442765 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of AVP-786 for the Treatment of Agitation in Participants With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type NCT02442778 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability Study of AVP-923 (Dextromethorphan/Quinidine) for Treatment of Symptoms of Agitation in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease NCT01584440 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.