A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Remdesivir Plus Tocilizumab Compared With Remdesivir Plus Placebo in Hospitalized Participants With Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-03-08, after 2020-06-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebohourshemodialysisscreeningrandomization
Phrases that lowered it: tocilizumabaminotransferaseand safetyefficacy andpatients -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1146 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 12 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1146 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 100 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 49684 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13402 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 81.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- remdesivir, tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Trial of Remdesivir in Adults With Severe COVID-19 NCT04257656 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- Remdesivir for Severely Ill Inpatients With COVID-19 (An ACTIV-3b/TESICO Treatment Trial) NCT06729593 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Remdesivir (GS-5734™) Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in an Outpatient Setting NCT04501952 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Tocilizumab in Patients With Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia NCT04320615 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Antiviral Activity of Remdesivir (GS-5734™) in Participants With Moderate Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Compared to Standard of Care Treatment NCT04292730 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.