Gut Butyrate and Blood Pressure in African Americans
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (141 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-11-02, after 2021-07-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lungstagehypertensionpressuregreater
Phrases that lowered it: effectvisitarthritisrheumatoiddiseases -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 104 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 646 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 88.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 646 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 104 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 35 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- butyrate, butyric acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pathophysiology of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors in African Americans NCT01122407 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Vascular Dysfunction in Human Obesity Hypertension NCT01983462 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Novel Evaluation With QGC001 in Hypertensive Overweight Patients of Multiple Ethnic Origins NCT03198793 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Study of Sildenafil Citrate on Insulin Resistance in African American NCT01334554 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- The Effect Of NS-0200 and NS-0300 Versus Placebo on Weight In Obesity NCT03364335 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.