A Study to Test How Taking BI 1015550 for 12 Weeks Affects Lung Function in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-15, after 2020-07-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 605 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebopriorstablemonthsacute
Phrases that lowered it: participantsbithe trialopentablets -
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 605 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 93 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Find Out Whether BI 1015550 Improves Lung Function in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT05321069 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test Whether BI 1819479 Improves Lung Function in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT06335303 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test Whether BI 1839100 Improves Cough in People With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis or Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT06360094 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Find Out Whether BI 1015550 Improves Lung Function in People With Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Diseases (PF-ILDs) NCT05321082 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of BIBF 1120 at High Dose in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Patients NCT01335464 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.