Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells Transfer in Patients With ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-07-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartcellsmyocardialventricularinfarction
  Phrases that lowered it: the effectand safetyinvestigate thesafety ofto investigate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ex Vivo Cultured Bone Marrow Derived Allogenic MSCs in AMI NCT00883727 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Autologous Bone Marrow Derived Stem Cells for Acute Myocardial Infarction NCT01167751 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Intracoronary Administration of OmniMSC-AMI for Acute ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients NCT05724576 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Intramyocardial Transplantation of Bone Marrow Stem Cells in Addition to Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) Surgery NCT00950274 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Bone Marrow Derived AC 133+ and Mono-Nuclear Cells (MNC) Implantation in Myocardial Infarction (MI) Patient NCT01187654 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.