Prophylactic Ivermectin in COVID-19 Contacts
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (56 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-07-27, after 2020-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: asymptomaticsymptomscontactfamilydrug
Phrases that lowered it: patientconfirmedhypersensitivity tocaseknown hypersensitivity -
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 63 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 54 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3293 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 372 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ivermectin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Prophylaxis for COVID-19: Ivermectin in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Cases (IVERNEX-TUC) NCT04894721 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Ivermectin as a Novel Therapy in COVID-19 Treatment NCT04403555 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Ivermectin for Post Exposure Prophylaxis of Covid-19 NCT05231603 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Ivermectin Treatment Efficacy in Covid-19 High Risk Patients NCT04920942 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness of Ivermectin as add-on Therapy in COVID-19 Management NCT04343092 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.