A Study of LY3819253 (LY-CoV555) and LY3832479 (LY-CoV016) in Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Illness
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (47 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-02-21, after 2020-06-17 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painheartdiseasebreastchronic
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinethe pharmacokineticsto evaluateevaluate theand safety -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1329 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 152 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1329 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 152 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bamlanivimab, bebtelovimab, etesevimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Immune System Proteins in Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Illness NCT04634409 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- COVID-19 Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of REGN14256+Imdevimab for the Treatment of COVID-19 Adult and Adolescent Patients Without Risk Factors for Progression to Severe Disease NCT05081388 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
- PROTECT-APT 1: Early Treatment and Post-Exposure Prophylaxis of COVID-19 NCT05954286 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare S-217622 With Placebo in Non-Hospitalized Participants With COVID-19 NCT05305547 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Investigating Otilimab in Patients With Severe Pulmonary COVID-19 Related Disease NCT04376684 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.