Treatment of Severe and Critical COVID-19 Pneumonia With Convalescent Plasma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-01-29, after 2020-08-08 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: to severepneumonia19treatment ofantibodies
Phrases that lowered it: plasmapatientsopen labeltrialpatient -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma Therapy in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04425915 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma Therapy in Severely Sick COVID-19 Patients NCT04346446 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Effects of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) on Coronavirus-associated Complications in Hospitalized Patients NCT04421404 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Patients With COVID-19 With Convalescent Plasma NCT04415086 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Early COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma in Patients Admitted for COVID-19 Infection NCT04375098 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.