ANTIBODY-LEVEL BASED ANALYSIS OF COVID-19 CONVALESCENT SERUM (ABACCuS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-11-28, after 2020-07-16 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 38.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 40% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientdonorpatientspresence ofundergoing
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantstransfusion19treatment -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 34 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 38.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 40% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- covid19 convalescent plasma
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of COVID 19 Convalescent Plasma in High Risk Patients With COVID 19 Infection NCT04392232 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma Therapy in Severely Sick COVID-19 Patients NCT04346446 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Convalescent Plasma for Early Treatment of COVID-19 NCT04390503 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials terminated
- Effects of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma (CCP) on Coronavirus-associated Complications in Hospitalized Patients NCT04421404 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Convalescent Plasma as Therapy for Covid-19 Severe SARS-CoV-2 Disease (CONCOVID Study) NCT04342182 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.