COVidIVERmectin: Ivermectin for Treatment of Covid-19
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-06-08, after 2020-07-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dialysisplacebotreatment ofrandomized doublesevere
Phrases that lowered it: trialand safetytabletsefficacy andsafety of -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3352 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 387 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 60.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ivermectin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ivermectin in COVID-19 Prevention NCT05305560 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Ivermectin in Subjects Infected With SARS-CoV-2 With or Without Symptoms NCT04407507 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Ivermectin Effect on SARS-CoV-2 Replication in Patients With COVID-19 NCT04381884 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Different Doses of Ivermectin for COVID-19 NCT04431466 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- Ivermectin to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Hospitalisation in Subjects Over 50 NCT05993143 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.