A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of SAGE-217 in Participants With Severe Postpartum Depression (PPD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (422 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determineplacebodepressionpurpose ofdetermine if
  Phrases that lowered it: participantmedical historyand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 279 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate SAGE-217 in Participants With Severe Postpartum Depression NCT02978326 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of SAGE-547 in Participants With Moderate Postpartum Depression (547-PPD-202C) NCT02942017 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of SAGE-547 in Participants With Severe Postpartum Depression (547-PPD-202B) NCT02942004 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate SAGE-547 in Participants With Severe Postpartum Depression NCT02614547 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Sage-217 in the Treatment of Adult Participants With Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) NCT04442490 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.