Randomized Open Label Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Enzalutamide in High Risk Male Outpatients With COVID-1

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnregistrationpatientsventricularheart
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialdrugsmildhepatitisclinically
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43933 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Enzalutamide Treatment in COVID-19 NCT04475601 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• A Study of LAM-002A for the Prevention of Progression of COVID-19 NCT04446377 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of APX-115 in Hospitalized Patients With Confirmed Mild to Moderate COVID-19. NCT04880109 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of C19-IG 20% in SARS-CoV-2 Infected Asymptomatic Ambulatory Outpatients NCT04847141 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Finding, Efficacy and Safety Study of Ensovibep (MP0420) in Ambulatory Adult Patients With Symptomatic COVID-19 NCT04828161 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.