A Translational and Neurocomputational Evaluation of a Dopamine Receptor 1 Partial Agonist for Schizophrenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typecognitiveschizophreniadisorderepisode
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsstudy willmoderateaimweeks prior
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 720 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 137 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PET Trial to Assess the Receptor Occupancy of Brexpiprazole in Adult Subjects With Schizophrenia NCT01854944 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Add On Treatment for Cognitive Deficits in Schizophrenia NCT01346163 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Lurasidone Pediatric Bipolar Study NCT02046369 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Roluperidone (MIN-101) in Adult Patients With Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia NCT03397134 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Investigate the Effect of an Investigational Drug as an Added Medication to an Antipsychotic, in Adults With Schizophrenia, as Measured Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Imaging NCT04038957 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.